Überraschende Einigung Was Experten vom Brexit-Deal halten

Stéphane Dutu, Fundamental-Analyst beim schweizerischen Vermögensverwalter Unigestion:

„Although Prime Minister Boris Johnson has successfully managed to strike a last-minute divorce deal with the EU, the UK is not out of the Brexit woods yet as it is still uncertain whether the UK Parliament will approve this deal on Saturday in a special sitting of the House of Commons. 

Getting the deal approved on Saturday would be positive for the UK economy as it would bring clarity as to the future trade relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner. It would also underpin Sterling and equities, especially domestic-orientated ones. Interest rate would rise, which would be negative for bonds. Equities and Sterling have already reacted positively over the last few days as the intensification of discussions between the EU, the UK and the Republic of Ireland have raised expectations that a Brexit deal was likely. An approval of the deal on Saturday would provide another leg up to the British currency and shares.

The Brexiteers among MPs have always insisted on the integrity of the UK “whole and entire”- meaning including the British province of Northern Ireland. They will certainly appreciate that the British PM was able to convince the EU to ditch the Irish backstop that was designed to prevent a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, but that would also have bound NI to some EU rules. But ditching the backstop may not be enough for Brexiteers. The future of Northern Ireland remains a thorny issue. 

Most MPs from the opposition will reject the deal because they do not want Brexit in any form. The DUP that props up the PM majority in Parliament has said it will not accept the deal although it could still change its mind in the next 48 hours if it fears that a hard Brexit is the only alternative. Boris Johnson will have to find 320 MPs on his side to get the deal approved, chiefly among Tories. Pro-Brexit MPs from the opposition with the nerves to weather the wrath of their political leaders could also side with him. Quite a few observers doubt he can achieve such a backing.

If the deal does not go through on Saturday, we believe the most likely outcome is a new extension of the Brexit deadline by 3 months to the end of January as the UK parliament legislated to block a hard Brexit on 31 October. This would give more time to Boris Johnson to garner a parliamentary majority around the deal he has just clinched.“