Überraschende Einigung Was Experten vom Brexit-Deal halten
Oliver Harvey, Macro-Stratege der Deutschen Bank, schreibt:
We wrote yesterday that should Prime Minister Johnson reach at least a political agreement with the EU27 in the next twenty four to forty eight hours, the outlook for Brexit negotiations remains bright, irrespective of the outcome of parliamentary votes on Saturday. We now have confirmation of such an agreement, with the Brexit deal emerging broadly on the same lines as those highlighted yesterday.
For the first time since March, and perhaps even January, we now have positive equilibrium in Brexit talks. All of the major UK parties support either a second referendum which is unlikely to have no deal on the ballot paper (Liberal Democrats, Labour, SNP), or a concrete deal with the EU27 (Conservatives).
There will be much focus on upcoming votes in Parliament on Saturday, and whether Mr Johnson's deal receives ratification (discussed in more detail below). But the important point from the market's perspective is that avenues to a no deal Brexit have been largely closed off. The only prospect of a no deal Brexit in the next three to six months would arise if a general election resulted in the Brexit Party performing sufficiently strongly to be needed to support a Conservative minority government.
Will it be ratified?
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Concerns were raised this morning about the DUP's opposition to the deal. In our view, the main risk concerned not their support in a ratification vote on Saturday specifically, but rather that their opposition could lead Mr Johnson to abandon talks. This has proved not to be the case.
Nevertheless, whether a deal is ratified on Saturday or not is still relevant to near term outcomes. Briefly, there are two questions relevant to the chances of ratification. First, will the DUP support the agreement? If so, we anticipate that all or almost all of the ERG also vote for the deal. In these circumstances, the government would require an additional ~22 votes to secure a parliamentary majority by our calculations (assuming no abstentions). Five Labour MPs voted for Prime Minister May's deal in March. If this stays the same, 17 additional votes will be needed, which may well be possible given that 22 Conservative MPs that voted for Prime Minister May's last deal have left the party since September and may be inclined to vote for the deal.
If the DUP do not support the agreement, we roughly assume that 10 Conservative ERG MPs will also decline to support the agreement. This would leave Mr Johnson Oliver Harvey
A second question is whether the EU27 will indicate to MPs that no further extension requests would be considered should they fail to ratify the agreement, a possibility we highlighted a week ago. While this would significantly increase the chances of the deal passing parliament, we see this as unlikely in the sense that it would be seen as interfering directly in a member state's domestic politics. It is possible, however, that some EU27 member state leaders might indicate they will not consider further extension requests.
